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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2020–Jan 23rd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Fresh storm slabs will likely be reactive to human triggering, especially in wind loaded areas, and at upper elevations. Watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking and recent avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine low temperature near -8

THURSDAY - Flurries, 5-15 cm / south wind, 30-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1500 m

FRIDAY - Flurries, 5 cm / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1500 m

SATURDAY - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 1500 m

Avalanche Summary

With up to 15 cm of new snow forecast for Thursday, warm temperatures and strong southerly winds, storm slabs will be forming in many areas. These will likely be reactive to human triggers.

There have been no new avalanches reported for several days.

Snowpack Summary

There has been 10 to 30 cm of new snow over the past week and up to 15 cm forecast to fall during the day on Thursday. Strong winds and warm temperatures on Thursday will likely mean that storm slabs will be forming, especially in the alpine and at treeline.

There is a layer of surface hoar buried 60 to 120 cm deep. This layer exists primarily at treeline and below. It appears to be gaining strength, though test results indicate that there is still the potential to trigger it in isolated areas. Check out this MIN report from a few days ago outlining some recent test results on this layer.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.