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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2022–Mar 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Keep an eye on the snow surface. As the freezing level rises and the snow surface becomes moist wet loose avalanches will increase in size and likelihood.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow with winds becoming strong from the southwest. Freezing levels around 1300 m.

Tuesday: Cloudy in the morning with flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow at higher elevations. A mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon. Strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 2500 m.

Wednesday: Cloudy with around 5 cm of snow expected at higher elevations. Freezing levels around 2200 m. strong southwest winds in the morning trending to light in the evening.

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light variable winds and freezing levels around 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday ski cutting in the north of the region produced wind slab avalanches on northerly aspects up to size 1.5. In the south of the region a group of skiers triggered a size 2.5 on a south facing slope at treeline. We suspect this avalanche ran on a crust from mid March.

On Saturday one natural cornice failure was observed in the north of the region. It did not pull a slab on the slope below. 

Several glide slab avalanches up to size three have been reported over the past few days in the southern part of the region.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs can be found on north and east aspects. Moist snow will likely be observed on all aspects at treeline and below. Only high alpine terrain is likely to remain dry. multiple crusts exist on solar aspects.

a melt-freeze crust from mid March exists down 20 to 40 cm on all aspects below 1500 m. In the north of the region, a crust/facet interface from February sits 40 to 80 cm deep and had been most problematic on north to northeast aspects around 1900-2100 m. This layer is currently considered dormant.

Terrain and Travel

  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.