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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2022–Mar 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Steep, unsupported slopes at all elevations are reactive to human loads, particularly on solar aspects.

The likelihood of natural and human triggered avalanches will subside with the eventual cooling this weekend.

Weather Forecast

More uncertainty in the forecast, with a possibility of a convective cell bringing snow Wed night.

Tonight: Trace to 10cm, Alp low -3*C, light winds

Thurs: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -4*C, FZL 1700m, light NW winds

Fri: Mix of sun/cloud with flurries, Alp high -7*C, FZL 1300m, light NE winds

Sat: Mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -6*C, light NE winds

Snowpack Summary

30-35cm of warm snow overlies a sun crust on steep solar aspects, small surface hoar in sheltered areas Treeline and below, and facets/wind slab elsewhere. The Feb 15 surface hoar/sun crust is down 50-80cm and may wake up with the new load and warm temps. Plenty of loose, dry snow up high for wind transport during localized convective activity.

Avalanche Summary

Artillery control Tues night produced good results up to sz 3.5 with several paths dusting the hwy.

Report from Hospital Knob of skier-controlled sz 1.5-2 soft slab avalanches, ~30cm deep, running on surface hoar.

Wed's pm temp spike triggered several low elevation, S-facing moist slides.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.