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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 25th, 2022–Feb 26th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Storm slabs will develop throughout the day and become increasingly reactive. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. 

Confidence

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

A major weather pattern change takes place beginning this weekend. As the ridge of high pressure breaks down, this opens the door to a cascade of incoming Pacific weather systems.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloudiness, no precipitation, 30-60 km/h southerly wind, treeline low temperature -6 C, freezing level at 700 m.

SATURDAY: Snow beginning in the morning, 20-30 cm, 70-90 km/h southerly wind, treeline high temperature +1 C, freezing level at 1200 m.

SUNDAY: Snow, 20-30 cm, 70-90 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature +3 C, freezing level at 1300 m.

MONDAY: Snow mixed with rain, 30-40 cm, 40-60 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature +4 C, freezing level at 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Thursday. On Friday, the Avalanche Canada field team reported a small size 1 natural loose wet on a steep solar slope.

Snowpack Summary

Throughout the region, storm snow will cover a variety of surface conditions including a thick and supportive melt-freeze crust on all aspects and elevations, pockets of soft and hard wind slabs in exposed high elevation terrain and a sun crust or moist snow on solar aspects.

The prominent late-January crust is now down 20-60 cm and is well bonded to the surrounding snow. The mid and lower snowpack is considered well settled and strong. 

Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.