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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2022–Mar 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

The danger rating reflects snowfall forecast for the Coquihalla area. Elsewhere, avalanche danger may be a step (or two) lower. Make observations and assess conditions as you travel.

Confidence

Moderate - Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Snow, 5-10 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Tuesday: Snow, 5-10 cm, 20-30 cm for the Coquihalla, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level 1600 m.

Wednesday: Snow, 5-10 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level 1000-1500 m.

Thursday: Clearing, light wind, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level 1000-1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, natural loose wet avalanche activity was observed size 1-2 at low elevations throughout the region. In the Pemberton Valley, storm slabs size 1-2 were observed initiating at 1600 m and running 1000 m, entraining wet snow. In the Duffey Lake area, a natural size 1.5 wind slab triggered by a cornice failure was observed on a NW aspect in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow continues to accumulate over a variety of surfaces including surface hoar and/or facets in shady, wind sheltered areas, sun crust on solar aspects and hard wind slab in the alpine.

  • In the south of the region, another 20-40 cm through the day Tuesday will bring storm totals to 40-60 cm in the Coquihalla and 50-70 cm latitudes near Allison Pass. 
  • In the north of the region, 10-15 cm by the end of the day Tuesday will bring storm totals to 20-40 cm. 

A crust that formed in mid-February is now down around 30-50 cm in the north and 70-90 cm in the south. Recent snowpack tests have shown resistant planar results on this layer in the Duffey Lake area. Another crust/facet layer from late-January is buried down 40-120cm and has shown no results in recent snowpack tests.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.