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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2021–Jan 4th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

South Coast.

In the midst of an active weather pattern, snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday. If it snows a lot, expect reactive storm slabs, choose simple terrain and avoid overhead hazard. If it snows a little, expect reactive storm slabs, choose simple terrain and avoid overhead hazard

Confidence

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Disagreement between weather models leaves us with a high degree of uncertainty around the tracking of the low pressure system, how much precipitation it will bring and where the bulk of it will fall on Monday.

Sunday night: Snow, 10-15 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing level 1200 m.

Monday: Snow, 10-40 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline high temperature -1, freezing level 1100 m.

Tuesday: Snow, 10-20 cm, strong southwest wind, treeline high temperature -3, freezing level 1000 m.

Wednesday: Very heavy snow/rain, strong to extreme southwest wind, treeline high temperature 0, freezing level 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Saturday, as professionals limited their travel and visibility was poor. Numerous avalanches have been reported through this lengthy stormy period including natural (size 1) and explosive triggered (size 2) in the North Shore mountains on Thursday and Friday.

Snowpack Summary

30-50 mm of precipitation is forecast to fall Sunday night and over the day Monday. Recent storm totals at upper elevations are upwards of 200 cm. Recent snow sits on a crust in many areas, and may also sit on surface hoar in some places. At lower elevations, the snowpack will be rain-soaked.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled.

Watch North Shore Rescue's snowpack conditions update from Friday here.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.