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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2021–Feb 3rd, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Fresh wind slabs will start to build on Wednesday and could be more reactive in the afternoon with the accumulation of new snow, especially where they overload a buried surface hoar and/or crust layer. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to the timing of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud with light snow up to 5 cm. Alpine temperatures near -6 and ridgetop wind strong from the West. Freezing levels 800 m.

Thursday: Mix snow and rain up to 20 mm. Alpine temperatures near -5 and freezing levels 1200 m. Ridgetop wind strong from the northwest.

Friday: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near -6 and freezing levels in the valley bottom. Ridgetop wind strong from the northwest.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche observations were reported on Tuesday. A few small loose dry avalanches (sluffs) were triggered by skiers and released naturally on northern aspects in the alpine in the last couple of days (see this valuable MIN report). 

Wind slabs will likely be more reactive later in the day on Wednesday with new snow accumulating and strong winds.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10 cm of new snow fell by Tuesday afternoon bringing 20-40 cm of accumulative storm snow from the past week over a variety of old snow surfaces. These old surfaces include surface hoar in locations sheltered from the wind at all elevations and was reported as widespread, surface facets, and stiff wind affected snow. On solar aspects, a buried sun crust can be found and a thick crust exists near the surface below 1000 m. Additional snow and wind through the forecast period may stress these potentially weak interfaces.

The lower snowpack has two decomposing crust layers that have been causing a deep persistent slab problem for most of the past month, however no notables in the past 2-3 weeks. The upper crust is 70-140 cm deep in the Smithers area and continues to show occasional hard sudden results in snow pits. The deeper crust at the bottom of the snowpack continues to be a problem in shallow ranges like the Babines. These layers seem to be unreactive under the current conditions, but shallow rocky slopes should still be carefully assessed and approached with caution. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Watch your sluff: it may run faster and further than you expect.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.