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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 12th, 2023–Apr 13th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Rockies, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Expect rapidly changing daytime conditions as rising freezing levels, sunshine and potential intense bursts of snowfall are likely to elevate the danger levels.

Observe your local conditions, and let that guide your terrain choice.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. It is likely that a widespread avalanche cycle occurred during the warm and wet storm. Natural and human triggered avalanches will remain likely during daytime periods of warming.

If you head out in the backcountry, let us know what you are seeing by submitting a report to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

20-30 cm of recent snow in the alpine covers settling, dry snow on shaded (northerly) aspects, and a frozen crust on solar aspects. At treeline, this recent snow is likely to be denser, shallower, and moist or refrozen.

Below treeline, rain soaked surfaces are starting to freeze or get snowed on as temperatures drop, and a lot more dirt is showing at low elevations.

The mid snowpack is generally settled and strong, except in areas with snow depths less than 150 cm. In these lower snow areas, the mid-pack is likely weaker and more faceted.

The lower snowpack includes a layer of large, weak facets and/or depth hoar crystals.

Weather Summary

Unsettled and convective weather continues. This unsettled weather will bring brief but intense periods of snowfall and pinpointing the location of these localized events creates a high level of uncertainty with this weather forecast. Prepare to continually evaluate the conditions, and change plans as necessary.

Wednesday Night

Cloudy. 1 to 5 cm of snow. Freezing level descending to 600m. Alpine temperature low of -8°C. Light west veering north ridgetop wind.

Thursday

Cloudy with afternoon clearing. 1 to 10 cm of snow. Freezing level rises mid day to 1600m, Alpine temperature low of -1°C. Light south west veering to north west ridgetop wind.

Friday

Cloudy with afternoon clearing and sun. 1 to 5 cm of snow. Freezing level rises mid day to 1650m, Alpine temperature low of 0°C. Light variable ridgetop wind.

Saturday

Cloudy with afternoon clearing. 1 to 5 cm of snow. Freezing level rises mid day to 1650m, Alpine temperature low of 0°C. Light north west ridgetop wind.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
  • Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.
  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.