Snowfall amounts vary dramatically across the region. The hazard could change dependent on the amount of new snow. More snow than forecast may push the hazard rating higher than forecast.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A series of Pacific low pressure systems will bring snow to the forecast area for the next 5 to 7 days. Forecast models vary on amounts and some parts of the area may see larger amounts of precipitation.Wednesday night: Freezing Level: 900m; Trace of precipitation as the front moves to the east, winds moderate to strong from the south west at ridge top.Thursday: Freezing level: 9000m; Another system moves through the interior on Thursday bringing light to locally moderate amounts of precipitation. A minor clearing will occur on Thursday night before the next storm system. Winds from the south west, moderate to strong at ridge top.Friday: Freezing level: 1000 to 1200 m ( warmer in the southern part of the forecast area) Another wave will bring more snow to the region, with continuing moderate to strong winds at ridge top.Saturday: Freezing level around 1000m A bit of a break in the weather on Saturday. Flurries with a trace of precipitation, light winds at ridge top.
Avalanche Summary
Reports of natural avalanches running up to size 2, with skier controlled avalanches up to size 1.5
Snowpack Summary
The new snow ( up to 50cm in some areas ) has fallen on a variety of weak surfaces that include surface hoar (widespread in most sheltered and shaded areas at all elevations), facetted wind slabs from the recent cold clear arctic conditions, and sun crust on some steep south facing slopes. These weak layers will be problematic for the near future. It will take time for the new snow to bond with these old surfaces. Forecast strong winds at ridge tops will redistribute the new snow and form wind slabs on lee slopes. A facet/crust weakness near the bottom of the snowpack has gone dormant for the most part. The depth of this layer makes triggering an avalanche unlikely but the consequences would be very serious.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.