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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 4th, 2025–Mar 5th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard.

New snow & wind may form reactive new storm slabs.

Recent avalanche activity and snowpack tests indicate the persistent weak layer remains triggerable.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Sun: Several small skier-triggered and natual wet loose avalanches, and one natural size 2 slab occurred.

Sat: Explosives control near Fernie yielded several persistent slabs sized 2 - 2.5 with crowns up to 100 cm deep.

Fri: A natural size 3 was reported in the Little Sand area - likely a persistent slab.

Thu: The field team saw several persistent slabs in Corbin.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new snow may fall overnight and through Wednesday morning, with highest amounts forecast for the Lizard Range. This new snow will build storm slabs and southwesterly winds will likely build the most reactive slabs on lee north and easterly slopes. The new snow will be falling on a widespread melt-freeze crust that exists up to around 1900 m and on all sun-affected slopes. A weak layer of preserved surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 80 to 130 cm. This weak layer was active during the warmup and remains a concern where there is no thick, supportive crust under the new snow. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow, highest amounts in the Lizard Range. 20 to 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1500 m falling to valley bottom. Treeline temperature low of -5 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with 2 to 10 cm of snow, highest amounts in the Lizard Range, clearing in the afternoon. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1600 m. Treeline temperature around -4 °C.

Thursday

Sunny. 15 - 25 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1700 m. Treeline temperature around -2 °C.

Friday

Sunny. 10 to 15 km/h south ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1800 m. Treeline temperature around -1 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.