There has yet to be significant recovery (crust formation) in the saturated snowpack after the recent rain event.
Strong solar input tomorrow may quickly destabilize slopes again. Minimize your exposure to overhead hazard.
A persistent weak layer (PWL), buried March 5th, is down 60-120cm. Depending on aspect and elevation, this layer may be suncrust, facets &/or surface hoar.
There is concern that wet avalanches will step down to this PWL (or lower) and entrain a significant mass of moist-wet snow.
10-15cm in the past day has accumulated in the alpine & at treeline with moderate wind transport from the SW. Use caution in leeward terrain features.
Strong solar is forecast for tomorrow. Expect freshly fallen snow to be easily triggered as a loose wet avalanche, which may gain significant mass with this moisture-laden snowpack.
A rain event into the alpine caused a widespread natural avalanche cycle on Wednesday. Numerous very large (up to size 4.0) wet avalanches ran down into the valley bottom. These avalanches included the deeply buried January Facets.
Since then, natural activity has slowed down but human triggering remains a concern.
10-15cm's of new snow sits on a saturated snowpack, where 40mm of rain percolated down over 70cm. How well the wet snow will recover with weak overnight freezing is uncertain.
Due to the rain event, we have lost 37cm in the total height of snow at 1900m. Rain runnels are visible high into the alpine.
The March 5 PWL consists of a crust &/or surface hoar and is down 60-120cm.
Additional PWL's from Jan/Feb are now buried 140-190cm deep
Brief drying trend Sunday. Instability returns Monday, bringing cloudy skies and convective flurries.
Tonight: Mainly cloudy. Alpine low -5°C. SW wind 20km/hr. Freezing Level (FZL) 700m
Sun: Mix of sun & cloud. Alpine High 0°C. East wind 15-25km/hr. FZL 2000m
Mon: Mainly cloudy. Trace precip. Alpine High -1°C. SE wind 10km/hr. FZL 1900m
Tues: Mainly cloudy. Trace precip. Alpine high -3°C. FZL 1800m.
