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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2023–Jan 11th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Persistent weak layers may be triggered from shallow, rocky areas. The resulting avalanche may start well away from where you are currently standing.

With this is mind, be mindful of other groups above and below. Remotely triggered avalanches ruin everyone's day!

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

One sz 2 loose, solar-triggered avalanche was observed Monday in the Mannix path, stopping mid-path.

Several small loose sluffs (size 1 or less) from steep solar aspects were also observed during brief sunny periods on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of new snow has freshened up the surface. Small lenses of wind slab are found immediately on ridgetops and in their lee. This sits on a settled upper snowpack. There may be a thin sun crust on steep S-SW aspects from Monday's sunshine.

The December 23rd facet interface is down ~60cm and appears to be gaining strength, but remains a concern in shallow snowpack areas.

The November 17th facet/crust/surface hoar layer is down ~100cm and has become less reactive in snowpack tests. When it does fail, there is a dramatic 'drop' of the entire snow column. Spooky!

Weather Summary

There's a storm on the horizon, but things always look bigger from a distance! One more day of calm, then a warm, wet storm on Thurs/Fri.

Wed: mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -4*C, 1200m FZL, light SW ridge winds

Thurs: snow and rising temps later in the afternoon, 10-15cm, Alp high -1*C, 1600m FZL, mod/strong SW ridge winds

Fri: flurries, 10cm, Alp high -1*C, 1800-2000m FZL, light to gusty moderate SW ridge winds

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.