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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2022–Jan 1st, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Clearwater, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Triggering a persistent slab can lead to serious consequences.

It's critical to stay disciplined and choose only well-supported, low-consequence lines.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Few natural and human-triggered storm and wind slabs (up to size 2) were reported Friday in Revelstoke area. They have released on thin convex rolls and /or steep unsupported slopes around treeline.

Since Wednesday, continuous occurrences of very large natural and human-triggered persistent slabs (size 2 to 3) failing on the mid-December weak layer. Some were remotely triggered. Few stepped down to deeper buried weak layers. Many of these human-triggered avalanches were a surprise to the individuals triggering them.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Between 20-25 cm of light snow is now overlying the recent dense storm snow. New snow has been redistributed to northerly aspects at higher elevations and fresh soft slabs may not bond well to previous surfaces.

The mid-December widespread weak layer of sugary faceted grains and/or small surface hoar is found down 50-75 cm. This layer was responsible for numerous large natural and human-triggered avalanches since Dec 27. At lower elevations, a significant rain crust can be found down 40-50 cm.

In the mid-snowpack, up to three weak layers created earlier in December can be found. Some of these may not exist in all areas of our region. The November weak layer can be found anywhere between 100 and 150 cm down. The very large avalanches reported since Dec 27 step down into these deeper weak layers.

The bottom of the snowpack is generally weak and faceted.

Weather Summary

Periods of snow will persist overnight as the coastal system weakens. Greater amounts are expected in the western sections. An upper ridge will be bringing widespread subsidence late Sunday and fair weather for the weekdays.

Saturday night

Light snow up to 5 cm except up to 10 cm over the Monashees and Cariboos, southerly ridge winds up to 40 km/h, treeline temperatures -5 °C. Freezing level around 500 m.

Sunday

Cloudy, lingering flurries, northwesterly ridge winds up to 25 km/h, treeline temperatures -4 °C. Freezing level around 750 m.

Monday

Mainly sunny, no precipitation, southwesterly ridge winds at 20 km/, treeline temperatures around -8 °C. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, no precipitation, southwesterly ridge winds at 20 km/, treeline temperatures around -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Choose simple, low-angle, well supported terrain without convexities.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.