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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2023–Jan 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

Continue to practice good travel habits: regroup in safe locations, limit the number of people exposed to avalanche terrain, and be suspicious of shallow or rocky ridges and start zones.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Wet loose avalanches were reported Friday and Saturday up to 1900 m with warm temperatures.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

High freezing levels over the weekend produced moist surface snow up to 2000 m, now a crust and under a trace of recent flurries.

A crust/facet layer is down 50-90 cm (and 2-15 cm thick at TL elevation), below the mid-pack is settled and consolidated.

Another crust/facet layer is down 70-150 cm. Below this crust, the basal snowpack is weak and faceted. Treeline snow depths average 120-250 cm.

Weather Summary

Sunday night

Cloudy with isolated flurries, up to 5 cm. Light southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline low temperature below -6 C. Freezing level falling to valley bottom.

Monday

Cloudy with isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Light southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high temperature -3 C. Freezing level as high as 1500 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated flurries. Light southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high temperature -6 C. Freezing level valley bottom.

Wednesday

Cloudy with isolated flurries. Light southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high temperature -5 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.