Avalanche forecast

South Columbia

Jan 20 – 21, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Touchy persistent slab + new snow + rising temps + strong winds = a good recipe for avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–5
    A volatile persistent slab has been failing with light loads. These slabs will probably get bigger and more reactive with the incoming storm.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    New snow, rising temps and strong southerly winds are expected to create a storm slab problem. Storm slabs/ wind slabs may pick up a surprising amount of mass.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A Pacific front embedded in a southerly flow brings snow (20-40 cm total), strong S to SW winds and freezing levels rising to around 1500 m on Thursday and Friday. Precipitation and winds ease and temperatures drop on Saturday.For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity has been widespread over the last few days as recent snow has reached a critical load above a volatile weak layer. Human and naturally-triggered avalanches have been most prevalent below treeline, but have also occurred at higher elevations in some parts of the region. These have mostly been in the size 1-2 range, with many triggered remotely from a distance. Wind slabs have also been reported in wind-exposed terrain.

Snowpack Summary

A 40-80 cm persistent slab overlies a variety of surfaces including large surface hoar, sun crusts, and facets. This slab is ripe for human triggers and is especially touchy below treeline. Recently formed wind slabs also exist on lee features at alpine and treeline elevations. Incoming snow, with warming and strong winds, will increase the size and likelihood of the persistent slab problem, as well as adding new storm slab problems. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

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