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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2026–Mar 16th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos, Blue River, McBride, Premier, Quesnel, Sugarbowl.

Make a plan to retreat from avalanche terrain as the storm intensifies, and stick to it! Heavy snowfall, strong wind, and rising temperatures are expected to begin a natural avalanche cycle.

Confidence

High

  • We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Only a few small skier-triggered wind slabs were observed near the Highway 16 corridor on Saturday. On Friday, a few natural wind slabs occurred in the alpine on south and east aspects. They were large (size 2 to 2.5).

On Thursday, soft wind slabs developing in the alpine produced releases to size 1.5 with sled traffic, to size 1 with skier traffic, and ran naturally to size 2 in the southeast of the region.

A more widespread storm slab problem should develop on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 40 cm of new snow should accumulate by end-of-day Monday, adding to about 50 cm since March 7, which has been redistributed by strong winds in exposed alpine and treeline terrain. It all sits on old wind effect at these elevations and on a melt-freeze crust to at least 1600 m and it may contain two crusts on treeline solar aspects.

Layers from late Jan and early Feb, both made of surface hoar, facets, and/or crust, are 100 to 150 cm deep. They're showing up less in test results but may remain a problem in isolated thin-to-thick snowpack areas above the elevation of the latest crust. A north aspect at 1600 m in the lower Canoe gave moderate, propagating results on the 90 cm-deep Jan layer Wednesday.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night
Cloudy with increasing flurries bringing about 10 cm of new snow. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, increasing. Treeline temperature rising to -7 °C.

Monday
Cloudy with continuing snowfall bringing 20 to 30 cm of new snow. 60 to 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature reaching -3 °C.

Tuesday
Cloudy with increasingly wet snowfall bringing 15 to 30 cm of new snow to higher alpine, including overnight, rain below about 2200 m. 60 to 80 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, easing a bit. Treeline temperature 2 °C with freezing level to 2500 m by end of day.

Wednesday
Cloudy with continuing wet flurries bringing up to about 10 cm of new snow above 2000 m, rain below. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C with freezing level falling to 2100 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.