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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2026–Mar 4th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

The January 26th Surface Hoar layer has finally woken up, producing very large avalanches throughout Rogers Pass.

Many slopes have not failed yet. These should be considered "Ready To Fail" and absolutely avoided!

With continued incremental loading these next few days, manage your overhead hazards accordingly.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast weather.
  • We are confident that there are deep persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.
  • We are uncertain due to the track and intensity of the incoming weather system.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive testing on Fidelity today produced a size 3 avalanche on the Jan 26 surface hoar. It also remote triggered a size 3 slab 50m away, with 2 ridges and a gully between them.

The avalanche cycle this past Fri saw numerous natural and explosive triggered avalanches up to size 4 running into valley bottom. The carnage of downed timber and debris littering the uptrack in Connaught and Asulkan is sobering.

See the following link to a recent Mountain Conditions Report.

Snowpack Summary

Extreme S'ly winds redistributed ~70cm of new snow into thick wind slabs on leeward features across the Alpine. Solar aspects (SE through W) have a surface crust from recent sun.

The Feb 9 surface hoar (SH) is down 90-120 cm and remains reactive in snowpack testing. The Feb 9 SH sits over a crust on solar aspects.

The Jan 26th layer, composed of surface hoar/facets/crust, is buried down 130-160 cm. The largest surface hoar is preserved in sheltered areas below treeline.

Weather Summary

Snow, gusty winds, and freezing levels (FZL) around 1500m will be the story at Rogers Pass the next few days.

Tonight Flurries, 5-10cm. Low -4°C. Wind SW 20-35km/h. FZL 1400m.

Wed Snow, 10-15cm. High -2°C. Ridge winds SW 20-45km/hr. FZL 1800m.

Thurs Flurries, 5-10cm. High -5°C. Ridge winds SW 20-50km/hr. FZL 1400m.

Fri Flurries, 5cm. High -5°C. Ridge winds SW 20-45km/hr. FZL 1400m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Shooting cracks, whumpfs, and recent avalanches are strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
  • If triggered, wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, causing larger avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.