Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 4th, 2026–Mar 5th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

A persistent weak layer remains the primary concern for the region. Although there is a decrease in natural activity there remains potential to trigger large avalanches.

Consider the size of slopes and overhead hazard in your decision-making process.

Confidence

Moderate

We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

Explosives control in the Maligne area this week produced persistent slab avalanches. Although there is a decrease in natural activity activity there remains potential to human trigger large avalanches.

Natural avalanches up to size 3.5 were observed Feb 27-Mar 2nd in the region and a skier triggered size 2 near miss occurred on Feb 28 at Hilda ridge. See the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of new snow fell since March 3, however warm temperatures have formed a melt freeze crust on solar aspects to 2200m. Recent strong winds have redistributed the snow in exposed areas Alpine and Treeline.

Of most concern right now is a 40-60cm slab sitting atop the Jan 24th weak layer of facets & surface hoar forming a persistent slab.

Although generally the midpack is well consolidated, there is a large amount of variability with thin areas remaining weak.

Weather Summary

Thursday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries (trace). Alpine High -6 °C. Ridge wind west 15 km/h gusting 40 km/h. Freezing level valley bottom.

Friday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries (trace). Alpine Low -11 °C, High -6 °C. Ridge wind W 15-30 km/h. Freezing level 1500m.

Saturday

Snow 5-10 cm with a warming trend. Freezing level 1900m. Ridge wind SW 25 km/h gusting 65 km/h.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
Recent strong wind means wind slabs may be found farther downslope than expected.
Keep in mind that human triggering may persist as natural avalanches taper off.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.