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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2023–Mar 13th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard.

New snow, warm temperatures and extreme winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions on Monday.

Watch for conditions changing as snow accumulates throughout the day. Continually assess the bond of new snow to old surfaces as you move through the terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, fresh wind slab formation was observed as moderate to strong northeast wind redistributed the surface snow into immediate lees, as seen in this MIN report from the Fernie area.

On Saturday, several small natural loose dry and storm slab avalanches were observed in steep alpine features.

Snowpack Summary

Accumulating flurries on Monday will cover a variety of surfaces including small pockets of wind slab on exposed south and west slopes, hard wind-affected surfaces in open areas, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, and facetted snow in sheltered areas.

The mid-snowpack is generally well-settled. The lower snowpack includes a layer of weak sugary crystals near the ground. These facets are slowly gaining strength and have not produced recent avalanche activity. We continue to track the layer and watch for any signs that it could wake up and produce very large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, 2-3 cm accumulation. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -2 °C. Ridge wind 40 km/h from the southwest. Freezing levels remain at 1300 meters.

Monday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, 5-9 cm of new snow accumulation at upper elevations. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Ridge wind 40-60 km/h from the southwest. Freezing levels rise to 1800 meters.

Overnight, flurries intensify bringing 15-25 cm of snow to higher elevations.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries, 1-2 cm accumulation. Alpine temperatures drop to a low of -5 °C. Ridge wind eases from 40 to 20 km/h from the southwest. Freezing level 1300 meters.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -3 °C. Ridge wind 10-25 km/h from the southwest. Freezing level 1500 meters.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.