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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2024–Feb 3rd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Jordan, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Whatshan.

Expect challenging travel navigating refrozen surfaces and avalanche debris.

At higher elevations, evaluate how the new snow is bonding to the crust and avoid freshly wind-loaded areas.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

The natural avalanche cycle observed last week due to the warming event has tapered with cooling temperatures. Numerous large (size 2-3.5) wet slab, persistent slab, and wet loose avalanches were reported from all aspects and elevations.

Moving forward riders should evaluate how new snow is bonding to the crust and avoid freshly wind-loaded areas.

Snowpack Summary

Cooling temperatures have left a surface crust of varying thickness above 1000 m. At upper elevations, up to 15 cm of dry snow may exist on top of this crust. Below 1000 m, the snowpack remains wet and isothermal.

The stress of recent load (warm, wet upper snowpack) produced large slab avalanches failing down to the mid-January persistent weak crust/facet layer (30-70 cm down) and the early December rain crust/ facet layer (100+ cm down). These layers may remain a concern in the alpine where they were not significantly impacted by rain and warm temperatures.

The snowpack depth is roughly 150 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with light precipitation, up to 3 mm. Alpine wind light from the west. Treeline temperature dropping to -4 °C, freezing level falling to 1000 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, up to 10 mm. Alpine wind east 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature -3 °C, freezing level 1400 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with light precipitation, up to 5 mm. Alpine wind southeast 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature -4 C, freezing level 900 m.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Alpine wind southeast 15 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature -4 °C, freezing level 1400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.