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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 24th, 2024–Jan 25th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Continued warming has helped create surface storm slabs which are failing naturally and from skier/rider traffic, especially at and below Tree-line.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A field team was able to ski cut a few convexities on solar aspects the last few days, producing up to sz 1.5 soft slabs running 30-40cm deep on the Jan 3 melt-freeze crust. These slabs were more reactive below Tree-line.

Several natural avalanches up to sz 2-2.5 from steep terrain were observed from Macdonald. Audible rumbles were heard from Cheops.

Near neighbours are also reporting human-triggering of a soft slab, ~30-50cm deep, on unsupported rolls/features.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temps and 30cm of settling storm snow are creating a soft storm slab on top of variable wind effect in open terrain at/above Tree-line, and faceted snow in sheltered areas below Tree-line.

A sun crust (Jan 3), down 50cm and most prominent at and below Tree-line on S-SW aspects, has been the failure plane for recent human triggered avalanches.

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down ~110cm and is decomposing.

Weather Summary

Flurries, mild temps, and light to moderate winds for the next few days. Freezing levels (FZL) remain above 1000m.

Tonight: Cloudy, flurries, trace snow, Alp low -6°C, light SW winds, 1300m FZL

Thurs: Flurries, 5cm, Alp high -6°C, mod SW winds, 1400m FZL

Fri: Sun/cloud, isolated flurries, trace snow, Alp high -6°C, moderate SW winds, 1400m FZL

Sat: Flurries, 5-10cm, Alp high -3°C, light S winds, 1600m FZL

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for human triggerable storm slabs at lower elevations, even on small features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.