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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2024–Jan 31st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos, North Rockies, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, East Kakwa, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

Until cold temperatures lock in this warm and wet snowpack, dangerous avalanche conditions and poor riding quality will exist.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Sunday and Monday saw a natural avalanche cycle with avalanches on all aspects and elevations to size 3.

A fatal avalanche incident involving one snowmobiler occurred in the Hasler riding area on Saturday. The avalanche was triggered in a wind-loaded east-facing chute feature at treeline and ran approximately 250 m. It likely failed on a layer of facets buried earlier in January. For more details on this incident, see the Fatal Avalanche Incident report.

Snowpack Summary

High freezing levels and rain have moistened the surface snow to 2500 m and wet, rain saturdated snow exists up to 2200 m.

A weak layer of facets exist down 30 to 60 cm and a prominent crust down 40 to 100 cm. The crust is reported to extend up to 1900 m in the Cariboos and up to 1600 m around Pine Pass. The stress of the new load (warm, wet upper snowpack) has produced large avalanches possibly failing on these layers.

In areas east of the Divide the snowpack is shallow and faceted with depths of 60 to 100 cm around treeline.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, alpine temperatures near -3°C, south alpine wind 15 gusting to 40 km/h, freezing level around 1900 m.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy with light rain/snow expected, southwest alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, freezing level around 2000 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with light rain/snow, alpine temperatures near 1°C, southeast alpine wind 20 km/h, freezing level rising to 1700 m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy, isolated flurries, alpine temperatures -2°C, southeast alpine wind 10 to 25 km/h, freezing level rising to 1300 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.