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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2022–Jan 12th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A warm blast of air is heading our way Wednesday, and natural avalanche activity will peak with its arrival.

If you are out for a tour, tree-bombs and snow pillows popping off steep features will indicate tropical air is flowing through.

Weather Forecast

The storm severity has been downgraded, but the warming temp spike is still forecasted.

Tonight: Flurries, 5cm, Alp low -5*C, mod SW winds

Wed: Snow, 20cm, Alp high 0*C, fzl rising to 1800m, strong gusty SW winds

Thurs: Flurries, 10cm, Alp high -1*C, fzl 1700m, mod/gusting strong W winds

Snowpack Summary

Warming temps, mod/strong SW winds, and ~15cm of new snow are combining with 60cm of low density snow to form new storm slabs. The Dec 1 crust (now buried up to 2m deep) remains dormant, despite having weak, sugary, faceted snow above and below it. The mid-lower snowpack is settled and strong.

Avalanche Summary

We are in a natural avalanche cycle Tues afternoon, with numerous avalanches observed reaching out to their valley bottom fans from MacD and Tupper.

A natural sz3 avalanche from steep, unskiable terrain on Macdonald Tues morning made it the hwy, temporarily closing the road.  Artillery control is on-going as the bulletin is being published.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.