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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 9th, 2022–Feb 10th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Warm temperatures and rain continue to weaken the snowpack. This will increase the likelihood of triggering avalanches on the buried weak layer. These avalanches can be triggered from a distance away, be mindful of slopes above and adjacent to you. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, 5 to 10 cm new snow and rain at lower elevations and the lower alpine, moderate to strong west wind, alpine temperature +1 C, freezing level 2300 m. 

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, trace of new snow, light to moderate west wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level slowly dropping to 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Sunny, light to moderate northwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1200 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny, light west wind, alpine temperature -3, freezing level 1500 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, skiers triggered small slabs on the buried weak layer with surface hoar. One was triggered from a distance away.

On Monday, wet loose avalanches below 1000 m were observed. Observations were limited due to visibility.

On Sunday, two natural large avalanches of size 2-2.5 were observed in steep terrain on north and east aspects in the alpine. Several large avalanches released on sun exposed steep slopes. Riders triggered a large size 3 avalanche in the south of the region.

Snowpack Summary

Accumulations during the day Wednesday and Wednesday to Thursday night will total around 10 to 30 cm of snow up high. At lower elevations and the lower alpine the precipitation will fall as rain with increasing temperatures. Accumulations will add to the previous storm which brought around 30 to 50 cm of snow. The snow formed wind slabs in lee terrain features at treeline and in the alpine from strong southwest wind and storm slabs in wind sheltered areas. The snow surface will be moist or wet at lower elevations and the lower alpine and likely form a crust when temperatures slowly drop during the day on Thursday.

The snow will be particularly touchy where it loaded a weak layer of surface hoar crystals. This layer is likely anywhere from 50 to 100 cm deep. Reports suggest that the surface hoar is most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline but could extend into wind-sheltered terrain in the alpine. Example terrain features to treat as suspect include the lee side of protected ridges, openings in the trees, cut blocks, and burns. On south aspects, a melt-freeze crust may exist instead of surface hoar.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.