Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

We have received 40 to 10 cm across the forecast area, which has fallen on a variety of surfaces.

Uncertainty in the strengths high elevation winds on Sunday means windslab hazard may be higher.

Adopt a cautious approach on Monday if you are heading into the mountains.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2.5

    Storm slab likely exists in wind sheltered areas. Watch for signs of cracking in soft new snow and be wary of large mid slope convex roll features and unsupported slopes.

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Wind Slabs are likely to have formed on a wide range of old snow surfaces - the bonding to which is suspect. Avoid all steep terrain near ridgcrest or convex roll features where wind loading or stiff wind driven snow is found.If the snowpack has been heavily wind affected, wind slab will become the primary problem

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Loose wet avalanching may occur in steep isolated solar terrain. Be mindful of steep cloudy solar slopes that may also be 'greenhousing'. Move to shadier aspects if you notice roller balling.

Recent Avalanche Activity

0809 - LW to Size on seen on multiple aspects below 1700m from steep terrain. No Obs on Main divide

Current Snowpack Conditions

Up to 40cm to 1ocm of new snow has fallen across the park in the last 32 hrs. Snow totals taper towards the east. This new snow will have fallen on a variety of surfaces from melt-freeze crusts, old wind slab or wind stripped layers. Previously near surface faceting was noted in areas with a melt-freeze curst, thin windslab or generally a shallow snowpack. The Mid and Lower pack appeared well bonded.

The new/old bond will require investigation

Mountain Weather

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, clearing in the morning and fine spells developing. Low cloud and patchy drizzle developing in the evening.

Wind at 1000 metres

Light.

Wind at 2000 metres

Light.

Wind at 3000 metres

Southwesterly 30 km/h, dying out in the evening.

Freezing level

1800 metres, lowering to 1400 metres in the evening

Sliding Danger

Sliding hazard still needs consideration. Thin snow over previous slick exposed surfaces likely.

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered