Avalanche Forecast

Clouds should decrease near and west of the crest Wednesday morning. Partly or mostly sunny weather should be seen Wednesday afternoon with moderate temperatures and generally light west winds.

The dry weather and moderate temperatures should lower the avalanche danger a notch on Wednesday compared to the past few days.

But the sun is getting stronger and stronger now that we are well into April. The most extensive concern should be possible wet snow avalanches by Wednesday afternoon especially in new snow on solar slopes above treeline but in older wet snow on other slopes as well. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches, roller balls in surface snow and small natural wet loose releases that usually precede more major wet loose snow avalanches. Avoid terrain traps where a small but powerful wet loose avalanche could have unintended consequences. 

A less extensive second concern will be possible new wind slab from in the above treeline zone. This will be limited to lee slopes above treeline that get a few inches of snow. Watch for small areas of firmer wind transported snow.

New storm slab seems unlikely due to the cooling trend and limited amounts of new snow. But watch for small areas of short lived storm slab in more sheltered areas above treeline that get a few inches of snow.

Although it will not be listed as a primary concern continue to be wary of cornices. Cornice failures are often seen during the transition to spring weather. Cornices have grown large recently and often break back further from the edge than expected.

A front crossed the Northwest Friday. Another moist front crossed the Northwest Saturday afternoon and night. Water equivalents and snowfall for these systems at NWAC stations at higher elevations near and west of the crest were in the .7-2.4 inch and the 5-25 inch range respectively. Warmer temperatures were seen by Sunday and especially Monday. The recent snow and warmer temperatures caused avalanches. Some avalanches were triggered by cornice failures.

The Mt. Baker and Alpental ski patrols reported widespread wet loose avalanches Sunday afternoon. A couple of reports via TAY for Sunday and Monday also indicate wet loose avalanches on solar slopes in the central Cascades.

NWAC observer Jeff Hambelton was on Grouse Ridge near Mt. Baker Monday and reported a cornice fall that had triggered a D2 storm slab avalanche near treeline as well as wet loose debris. These avalanches likely occurred Sunday. Check out Jeff's latest video here.

Storm slab avalanche likely triggered Sunday by a cornice failure on Grouse Ridge. Photo taken Monday by NWAC observer Jeff Hambelton.

NWAC observer Dallas Glass is on Mt Baker Monday and today. He reported up to 15 cm of moist or wet surface snow and further natural wet loose avalanches on solar slopes on Monday. He also reported cornice triggered natural avalanches on Monday.

Less avalanche activity should be seen Tuesday as a front approaches the Northwest and clouds cut down on solar effects and temperatures begin to cool. The southwest to northeast oriented front should shift from the Olympics and north Cascades this afternoon to the south Cascades Tuesday evening. A few inches of snow is possible in the above treeline zone this afternoon through tonight.