Avalanche forecast

South Coast Inland

Feb 5, 2017Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 10 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers. Conservative decision making will be CRITICAL to playing safe in the mountains this weekend.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3
    This problem is more prevalent in the far north areas of the region and is a low likelihood, high consequence scenario that will need to be monitored as snow loads increase.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers. Smaller storm slabs may step-down to deeper weak layers, resulting in large, destructive avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: 20-25 cm new snow / Moderate to strong, southwest winds / Freezing level sea level.Sunday: 0-5 cm new snow / Moderate, southwest winds/ Freezing level sea level.Monday: Mostly cloudy with flurries / Light to moderate, southwest winds / Freezing level sea level.Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light, southwest winds/ Freezing level sea level.

Avalanche Summary

New storm slabs will likely have a poor bond to the old snow surfaces and be reactive to human triggers, especially on leeward slopes that are more wind loaded. In thin areas to the north, storm slabs could potentially step-down to deeper weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

15-25 cm of new snow has buried a wide variety of old snow surfaces including stiff wind slab or wind effected snow at upper elevations, sun crust on steep southerly slopes, surface hoar and surface facets in sheltered locations. An additional 20-25 cm of new snow is expected by Sunday morning, bringing storm totals up to 35-50 cm(lower amounts in the north). The mid-January surface hoar and facet interface is now buried 50-80 cm and the mid-December facets down 90-120 cm remain a concern especially in shallower snowpack areas like the Duffey, Hurley and/ or South Chilcotins. These deeper weaknesses warrant monitoring especially through periods of more load. In southern areas (Coquihalla), the lower snowpack is reportedly well settled(stronger), than it is to the north.

Regions covered