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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 1st, 2017–Dec 2nd, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Reactive storm slabs will likely exist at treeline and in the alpine. With limited observations and a variable snowpack use a conservative approach to route selection.

Confidence

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with snow amounts 10-25 cm and ridgetop winds moderate from the South West. Alpine temperatures near -8. Freezing levels 1100 m. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries. Ridgetop winds light from the West. Alpine temperatures -8 and freezing levels near 800 m. Monday: Mostly sunny with ridgetop winds light from the West. Alpine temperatures near -10 and freezing levels at valley bottom. Uncertainty around the snowfall amounts overnight Friday and Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, explosives control saw numerous storm slab avalanches up to size 2 on N-NE aspects above 2000 m. We suspect these avalanches are running on the November 27th crust. Storm slabs and wind affected snow on leeward slopes may be reactive to rider triggers through the weekend. Please submit your observations this weekend to the Mountain Information Network. Give info, get info.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40 cm of accumulated storm snow has fallen on the crust that formed last week. The buried crust is supportive and approximately 10 cm thick. It extends from 1600 m to mountain top elevations on all aspects. Reports indicate that the recent storm snow may have a poor bond to the crust. Ridgetop winds are likely redistributing the new snow above treeline and possibly forming wind slabs on leeward slopes and terrain features. The average snowpack depth at treeline is 60-80 cm while a deeper snowpack exists in the alpine. The snowpack remains highly variable in regards to aspect and elevation.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.