Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

A ridge of high pressure drifts into the area Saturday evening driving overnight temperatures into the mid minus teens. On Sunday morning high clouds steam into the region ahead of the approaching mass of warm air. Light precipitation should begin after lunch, but I'm only expecting 5 or so for the day. The bigger story with the warm front is the rise in freezing levels which could go as high as 2000 m. Winds build to moderate/strong values out of the SW Sunday. A weak cold front affects the area Monday afternoon bringing another shot of light precipitation & lowering temps/freezing levels.

Many small natural avalanches confined to the new snow have been reported from the region. While important to note, the big story is the continued activity on the mid December surface hoar/facet/crust layer. The bottom line is that this layer continues to be very sensitive to skiers & sledders. There are numerous reports coming in of remote triggering, that is, people triggering avalanches from far away. It's also significant that avalanches failing on this layer are being reported in areas we sometimes deem as "safe." Both natural and human triggered avalanches continue to be in issue on treed slopes.

Around 100cm of total storm snow has fallen in the region since Christmas. Winds have redistributed the storm snow into wind slabs that are quite widespread; you can find them at and above treeline in wind exposed locations. Even open areas below treeline are suspect for wind affected snow. A surface hoar/facet/crust interface (persistent weakness aka PWL) from mid-December is buried anywhere from 80-100cm deep & has been quite reactive making for touchy avalanche conditions. Below this lies a well consolidated and strong lower snowpack.