Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - West.
Avalanche hazard increases significantly as you gain elevation. Fresh storm slabs will be easy to trigger at upper elevations on Saturday. Choose conservative terrain while the snowpack adjusts to the heavy load of new snow.
Discussion
Snow and Avalanche Discussion
A wet, potent storm is favoring the Northwest Cascades. The adjacent West-North forecast zone received over 2in of water since Thursday night with 4000-5000ft snow levels. So far, near treeline areas have picked up 12in of heavy new snow. Mostly rain has fallen below 4000ft. Snow totals at upper elevations are unconfirmed. Another .5-.75in of water is expected Friday night with snow levels dropping to 3500ft as precipitation tapers off and conditions dry out by Saturday afternoon.
Observers on Friday experienced wet and windy conditions with very low visibility in the nearby Mt. Baker area. Snowfall remained steady for most of the day. A noticeable increase in the height of new snow occurred near 4500ft. Small natural and triggered loose wet avalanches occurred on steep convex slopes. The old/new interface was saturated/wet up to at least 5000ft, and new snow appeared to be bonding well up to this elevation. However, a density break within the storm snow produced easy failures in snowpack tests.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Additional snow and wind Friday night will continue to build storm slabs near and above treeline. These slabs will become thicker and more dangerous the higher in elevation you travel. More reactive slabs will form in areas where the wind drifts new snow. Assess how the new snow is bonding to itself and to the old snow surface. Look for recent avalanches on similar slopes you plan to ski and ride and watch for shooting cracks and collapses as you travel. Look for sudden changes in snow surface texture and hardness to identify wind-drifted areas of snow. Give the new snow time to stabilize. Be very cautious of slopes 35 degrees and steeper near and above treeline.
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
If the sun comes out Saturday afternoon, loose wet avalanches will be possible on steep sun-exposed slopes. As they run downslope, these avalanches could entrain quite a bit of snow. They could even trigger a slab avalanche at upper elevations. They could also be hazardous in confined terrain where debris from even a small avalanche could pile up. Avoid steep slopes where you find wet unconsolidated snow surfaces. Watch for roller balls and pinwheels as good indicators that wet avalanches may follow.
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1