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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 17th, 2019–Mar 18th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Strong solar radiation will weaken the upper snowpack, avalanche activity will increase on solar aspects as the day progresses.Avoid exposure to overhead hazards like cornices which could weaken with warming temps.

Weather Forecast

Welcome to the diurnal spring swing! Today will be sunny with an alpine high of -1, light NW winds with a freezing level rising to 2000m. We will start seeing drastic temperature swings over the next week as a strong upper ridge builds over the region, bringing clear skies and daylight freezing levels up to 3300m.

Snowpack Summary

Surface snow consists of sun crust on solar aspects and loose dry snow on polar aspects. This past weeks snow has settled into a 50cm soft slab which sits on a sun crust, hard slab in exposed areas, and facets in sheltered locations. The snowpack is generally facetted from Feb's cold streak and could loose strength quickly with the warming temps.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches from sz 1.0 - 3.0 yesterday from all aspects and elevations. The sz 3.0 came down the SE face of Catamount, skiers were in the area but its unknown if they were the trigger, no involvement. On Wed, a human-triggered size 1.5 avalanche on Glacier Crest took 1 person for a short ride on a W aspect at 2100m.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

Dry/moist loose avalanches can be easily triggered in steep terrain and gather mass and momentum quickly. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on Southerly aspects when the solar radiation is strong.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.If triggered the loose wet sluffs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

At treeline and above the recent snow has settled into a soft slab that is up to 50cm deep and is bonding poorly in areas where it sits on weak, faceted snow or on a sun crust. Rising temperatures will put additional stress on this layer.
Convex features and steep unsupported slopes will be most prone to triggering.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3