Stay tuned to signs of instability like recent avalanches, whumpfing, and shooting cracks. If observed, back off to simple terrain with no overhead exposure.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Tonight and Thursday: 5-15 cm of snow. The freezing level is at valley bottom. Winds are strong from the Southwest. Friday: Cloudy with flurries. The freezing level is at valley bottom and winds are moderate from the SW. Saturday: Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries. The freezing level is near valley bottom and winds ease to light.
Avalanche Summary
There is a new report of two skier controlled size 2 slab avalanches from the Ashman area on Tuesday. These failed on the Jan 5/Dec 26 surface hoar layers down 20-50 cm deep. On Monday, a small natural cornice release triggered a size 2.5 slab avalanche in the north of the region. Skiers also triggered a few slab avalanches size 1-2 in the north. All these avalanches released on the Jan 9 surface hoar layer down 30cm.
Snowpack Summary
The region has a mix of wind slabs and developing storm slabs. In higher snowpack areas in the northwest of the region, the storm slab has become reactive to human triggers. In most other areas the wind slabs are thin and stiff. Buried surface hoar is layered through the thin snowpack. Cool temperatures and limited loading have preserved these weak layers. The mid pack that was reported to be well settled may have now facetted in the shallower areas, and the deeper basal layers are almost certainly facetted and weak. We have not heard of any full depth releases on weak basal layers yet.
pmarshall,
Avalanche Canada
