Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 6th, 2024–Dec 7th, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Snow is coming! Amounts are still up in the air, but we are optimistically hoping for 10-20cm by Sunday. The ratings for Saturday take the higher amounts into consideration, but expect hazard to rise with any new snow.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Despite being warm and windy, the loose wet activity has stopped. Nothing new from today.

Snowpack Summary

Extended warm weather has done a number on our snowpack. Lots of wind scouring out there, with moderate wind loading in lee terrain. We can expect a widespread crust to form tonight, and likely stay as snow arrives tomorrow. The character of the interface will be the thing to watch as there are a few variables at play. Re-freeze timing, snow amounts and aspect distribution will all play parts in how this crust/interface develops. Aside from new crust speculation, the deeper layers are still lingering below but they are becoming less and less apparent as a crust and more apparent as a weak layer made up of depth hoar and facets.

Weather Summary

Temperatures will cool slightly tonight and settle at -8°. Daytime high is only a degree or two warmer. Snow forecasts don't quite agree on expected amounts for tomorrow, but hey, atleast there's snow in the forecast! Expect anywhere from 10-20cm by tomorrow evening. Ridge winds will average 40km/hr from the west for most of the day.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep terrain that is rocky and thin.
  • Pay attention to isolated wind affected features in the alpine, as well as cross-loaded features at treeline.
  • Avoid freshly wind-loaded terrain features.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

If the snow materializes tomorrow, expect rapid wind slab development. The crust/wind slab interface will likely be poor. Storm slabs should also be on the radar in sheltered areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

This deeper layer will likely wake up with any new load, whether its from wind transport or new snow won't matter. Windslabs may even step down to this layer. Treat the deep layers with respect and don't underestimate it.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5