Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Another stormy period on the horizon as the next front approaches from the northwest. Precipitation starting around mid-day Monday. Expecting up to 35 cm of storm snow accompanied by strong SW winds.TUESDAY: Monday's storm should wind down Tuesday morning with light flurries or snow showers lingering through the day. However, strong westerly winds continue. Slightly cooler than Monday with freezing level around 500m.WEDNESDAY: Forecast models disagree about what comes next ... but it's safe to say there'll be a Low pressure centre somewhere around Haida Gwaii. The details are difficult to resolve but I'm going with Wednesday once again snowy with freezing level around 800 to 1000m.THURSDAY: Assuming we get Wednesday's forecast reasonably accurate, the unsettled weather moves south and conditions start to clear up  and winds calm down. Check tomorrow for an updated forecast, or ...

Poor weather is keeping avalanche observations to a minimum, but initial reports of a natural cycle up to size 3 came in on Sunday. Ongoing avalanche activity is expected as stormy conditions continue.In the north (colder & drier inland area) there was an interesting remotely triggered size 2 avalanche with a hard slab releasing near the ground in shallow snowpack area with a gentle start zone.

Recent storm snow accumulations of 40-80 cm have been affected by ongoing moderate to strong winds from the south-west through north-west at alpine and treeline elevations. Monday's storm will continue this trend with strong northwest winds. Recent storms are burying older hard wind slabs and scoured surfaces in wind-exposed areas. In wind-sheltered terrain, sun crusts or dry facets sit below the recent storm snow.In the upper pack is an interface of sun crusts, facets and spotty surface hoar (which is most prevalent in sheltered treed locations). Deeper in the snowpack, around 50-150 cm down, you'll find a crust/surface hoar layer, which still has the chance to surprise you and could be triggered from a thin snowpack spot, or with a large trigger like cornice fall. Basal facets may be found near the bottom of the snowpack in colder / drier parts of the region.