Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Up to 12cm of new snow is forecast to fall on Saturday with another 5cm possible in the overnight period. Generally light accumulations (~5cm) are forecast for Sunday and Monday. Ridgetop winds should be moderate from the south on Saturday, becoming light on Sunday and Monday. Freezing levels should sit at about 1800m on Saturday, and then drop closer to 1500m for the rest of the forecast period.

On Thursday numerous naturally triggered wind slabs (mostly in the size 2 range) were observed at treeline and in the alpine. They occurred in response to new snow and wind. On Friday explosives control continued to produce storm slabs to size 2.5 on a variety of aspects throughout the region. Of note, a size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche was triggered with explosives in the Dogtooth Range. The mid-February layer was the likely culprit in the avalanche.

Snowfall accumulations on Thursday were in the 10-20cm range. Strong southerly winds redistributed these accumulations into touchy wind slabs at treeline and in the alpine. 30-70 cm recent storm snow overlies a prominent weak layer buried on or around Feb-27. The deepest snow amounts appear to be in the west central area near Kootenay Lake. The Feb-27 weak layer comprises surface hoar and a crust. It has been widely reported but recent snowpack test results are mixed, with some tests indicating this layer is gaining strength, while others indicating it can still fail with sudden "pop" results. A deeper weak layer from mid-February is now down 50-80cm. The early January surface hoar/facet layer is typically down 70-120cm. Triggering an avalanche on either of these layers has become unlikely but either still has the isolated potential to produce very large avalanches with a heavy trigger.