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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2011–Jan 1st, 2012
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure drifts into the area Saturday evening driving overnight temperatures into the mid minus teens. On Sunday morning high clouds steam into the region ahead of the approaching mass of warm air. Light precipitation should begin after lunch, but I'm only expecting 5 or so for the day. The bigger story with the warm front is the rise in freezing levels which could go as high as 2000 m. Winds build to moderate/strong values out of the SW Sunday. A weak cold front affects the area Monday afternoon bringing another shot of light precipitation & lowering temps/freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

Skiers continue to remote trigger avalanches throughout the region. A few folks have been caught in avalanches too recently. Not surprisingly, explosive control work continues to trigger large avalanches to size 3.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 100 cm of snow has fallen since Christmas bringing the total snowpack depth to around 200cm in the alpine. The holiday storm snow is now settling into a cohesive slab that sits above a very sensitive mid-December surface hoar layer. This layer continues to be easily triggered by skiers and sledders. Continued snowfall has also awoken the basil weakness near the ground on north facing slopes. This mixed bag of weaknesses has made for a very tricky avalanche situation as evidenced by the numerous accidents in the area over the last few days.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Winds continue to redistribute storm snow into fresh wind slabs. I'd be suspect of any open area, even below treeline. Once moving, a wind slab could easily step down and trigger a large avalanche.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

This layer continues to be touchy across the region. It's time to rein your terrain selection way in.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Deep Persistent Slabs

The weight of the snowpack is pushing this layer over the tipping point in some locations. Avalanches triggered in more superficial layers have the potential to step down to this layer creating a deep and destructive avalanche.

Aspects: North, North East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6