Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Purcells.
Confidence
Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure drifts into the area Saturday evening driving overnight temperatures into the mid minus teens. On Sunday morning high clouds steam into the region ahead of the approaching mass of warm air. Light precipitation should begin after lunch, but I'm only expecting 5 or so for the day. The bigger story with the warm front is the rise in freezing levels which could go as high as 2000 m. Winds build to moderate/strong values out of the SW Sunday. A weak cold front affects the area Monday afternoon bringing another shot of light precipitation & lowering temps/freezing levels.
Avalanche Summary
Skiers continue to remote trigger avalanches throughout the region. A few folks have been caught in avalanches too recently. Not surprisingly, explosive control work continues to trigger large avalanches to size 3.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 100 cm of snow has fallen since Christmas bringing the total snowpack depth to around 200cm in the alpine. The holiday storm snow is now settling into a cohesive slab that sits above a very sensitive mid-December surface hoar layer. This layer continues to be easily triggered by skiers and sledders. Continued snowfall has also awoken the basil weakness near the ground on north facing slopes. This mixed bag of weaknesses has made for a very tricky avalanche situation as evidenced by the numerous accidents in the area over the last few days.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 4
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 6
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: North, North East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 3 - 6