Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
We are entering a period where avalanche activity will taper off, and the chance of triggering a buried weak layer becomes less likely. However, if triggered, the avalanche could be large and destructive. Choose low-consequence terrain features and manage your group appropriately.
High-quality, deep pow can be found throughout the Park.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Monday a size 2 avalanche was observed off of Bruins Ridge into 8812 Bowl. It is uncertain if it was remotely triggered or occurred naturally, but was estimated to be 40-50cm deep, 60m wide and ran 200m, covering tracks down into the bowl.
On Sunday several size 2-2.5 natural storm slab avalanches were observed from steep, wind-loaded terrain, and several size 1-1.5 dry loose avalanches from steep and rocky solar aspects.
Snowpack Summary
The top 30cm of snow is low-density and provides great powder turns. The Dec 23 facet interface is down ~70cm but is rounding and gaining strength. The Dec 5 and Nov 17 surface hoar layers have been less reactive recently but had been exhibiting 'sudden' results in snowpack tests.
Weather Summary
The ridge of high pressure will continue to linger over the region, bringing clear skies, light ridgetop winds, and temperatures ranging from -5 to -10.
A small amount of snow is forecasted for late this week.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
- Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
30-60cm of settled storm snow buries the Dec 23 facet interface. This layer will be a concern in steep terrain, on convex rolls or areas where the snowpack is unsupported (pillows, hanging snow fields, etc.).
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
The Nov 17 layer is down 60-120cm and consists of decomposing surface hoar, facets and a crust in some locations, and still shows hard sudden results in snowpack tests. Though becoming less likely to trigger, the resulting avalanche could be quite large.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3