Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - North East.
Watch for Wind Slabs forming in the new snow as the Avalanche Danger increases throughout the day. Persistent Slab avalanches claimed lives along the east slopes of the Cascades in the past 2 weeks. Avoid steep, complex terrain and sit out this low likelihood - high consequence problem; ensure a wide buffer between where you travel and open slopes over 35 degrees as well as large avalanche paths.
Detailed Forecast
Expect the avalanche danger to increase throughout the day, peaking around dark. Today, you can easily trigger avalanches in the upper layers of the snow due to new snow, wind, and light rain at low elevations. New snow may fall on a variety of surfaces and some may be slick. Watch for cracking, wind stiffened snow, and freshly formed drifts. Steer around fresh wind features, convex rolls, and slopes holding a foot or more of new, cohesive snow that are 35 degrees and steeper. Rain will fall later today bringing a chance for wet avalanches up to 4000ft. Avoid high consequence terrain such as cliffs, rocks, and gullies where even a small avalanche could be dangerous.
Avalanches in the upper snowpack and heavy snowfall are making it easier to trigger deeper and dangerously wide avalanches. Persistent weak layers lurk deeper in the snowpack. The signs of Persistent Slab avalanches may not be obvious. These low likelihood, high consequence avalanches are very difficult to manage. The best way to stay safe is to avoid the slopes where you can trigger them. Take a day or two to choose more cautious terrain before returning to the kinds of slopes you traveled on prior to this storm. Avoid large avalanche paths, start zones, and unsupported slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Tracks on a slope don’t mean that the slope is safe. In one recent fatality in the Cascades, the slope had numerous tracks on it before the avalanche was triggered. While these avalanches may give little warning, the consequences could be un-survivable.
Snowpack Discussion
After prolonged calm and sunny conditions, A storm is delivering our next snowfall. The past two weeks brought three fatal avalanche accidents across the East Slopes of the Cascades. All of these were triggered on persistent grain types. Several potential persistent weak layers exist. Two common layers that have been reported are a facet/crust combination buried on 2/23 and a facet/crust layer buried on 2/13. The Setting Sun avalanche released on faceted grains above a thin crust.  Â
The upper (shallower 2/23) layer can be found 1-2 feet below the snow surface on steeper slopes that have received direct sun. Small weak facets have been found in other regions surrounding a thin sun crust.
The 2/13 facet/crust combination is typically found 2-4 feet below the snow surface and above the 2/5 firm crust. This layer has two confirmed skier triggered avalanches and more recent collapsing and whumphing.Â
The exact depth of these layers depend on aspect, elevation, and proximity to the Cascade crest. A high level of uncertainty remains surrounding these layers.Â
Observations
North
On Tuesday, observers reported sun crusts forming on the surface of even shaded slopes.
Monday NWAC and NCMG professionals visited the Setting Sun Mt accident site. They found the large avalanche had released on a WNW aspect at 6900 ft. The hard slab avalanche had released on 1.5 mm rounding facets.Â
On Sunday, North Cascades Heli observed a recent avalanche (likely from Friday) which released mid-slope and featured a deep crown. They suspected the avalanche to involve the 2/13 layer.
On Sunday, NCMG was in the Washington Pass area near and below treeline where they observed no new avalanches and no results with ski tests.
On Saturday, NCMG traveled in the Cuthroat area and observed small wind slab avalanches in steep terrain that had run naturally on Friday. The 2/23 crust was not observed on north facing terrain above 5600'. The 2/13 layer down 3' (85 cm) at 6100' on a NNW aspect showed mixed results in tests. Widespread collapses and a stubborn small persistent slab release was reported on Vasiliki ridge from a third party.Â
Central
On Sunday, NWAC forecasters Dallas Glass and Josh Hirshberg were in the Long's Pass area of the North Fork of the Teanaway drainage where they traveled up to 5700' on S-W-NW aspects. They found the 2/13 persistent layer down 3' everywhere they dug. A new breakable surface crust formed from direct sunshine Saturday on S and SW aspects, but due west aspects had settled powder without the crust. Winds continue to transport snow with NW winds loading SE slopes in that location.
On Friday, NWAC observers traveled in the Bean Creek area north of Cle Elum. On both south and northeast slopes, they reported large and small column tests indicating potential for human triggering on the 2/13 facets. This weak layer was 3-4 feet below the surface. They also found the 2/23 facets about 2 feet below the surface on a south aspect at 5450 ft and several reactive layers of preserved snow crystals within the upper 1.5' of the snowpack.
On Wednesday 2/28, an avalanche professional in the Chiwakum Mountains reported collapses and whumps on the 2/13 buried facet layer. Depth to the layer was highly variable (1-3 feet). Another traveler triggered an avalanche almost 3 feet deep on a small steep slope near McCue Ridge.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Persistent Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.
The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.
Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1