Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Sunday

A ridge of high pressure should persist for one more day bringing mainly clear skies for Saturday. Winds are expected to be light and northwesterly with the freezing level at 1900m.The ridge then flattens and a more zonal pattern is forecast to bring snowfall and seasonal temperatures to the region for Sunday and Monday. At this point there is significant model disagreement with the timing and intensity of this next system.

Sun forecast for Saturday could trigger loose wet avalanche activity on steep solar features. Warming also has the potential to trigger cornice releases or deeper persistent slab avalanches in isolated terrain.

Light amounts of recent snowfall sit on 60-100 cm of settling storm snow from last week.  Below 1400m in the north and 1700m in the south the light amounts of new snow overlie a thick rain crust. These recent accumulations may also exist as wind slabs in exposed terrain.At the base of last week's storm snow is a layer of buried surface hoar (February 20th). This layer was the culprit in most of the large avalanches that occurred last weekend. Snowpack tests continue to show sudden planar results and good potential for propagation. Triggering this layer is becoming more difficult, but I recommend avoiding any large slopes that did not release during the last cycle, especially when the sun pokes out this weekend. Below this the snowpack is generally well settled and strong.