Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

An active weather pattern will deliver continued precipitation to the region for the forecast period. Expect daily accumulations of 8-12cm with freezing levels hovering around 800m. Ridgetop winds will be strong to extreme from the southwest on Monday, decreasing to moderate from the south on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Over the last few days several newly formed wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 were ski cut in steep, higher elevation terrain. On Saturday, a size 2 slab avalanche was accidentally triggered on Oscar Peak northwest of Rosswood. The avalanche occurred on a steep roll at about 1400m and is thought to have failed on recently buried surface hoar. With new snow and wind in the forecast, I would expect ongoing wind slab activity for the forecast period.

Over the past few days daily snowfall accumulations have generally been in the 5-15cm range with the highest accumulations occurring in the south of the region. Strong to extreme ridgetop winds have shifted the new snow into new wind slabs at treeline and in the alpine adding to an ongoing wind slab problem. About 60cm below the surface you'll likely find a crust that was buried on February 28th. A report from northwest of Rosswood suggests a recently buried layer of surface hoar may also exist in the upper snowpack, although I'm unsure of its size or distribution. An older crust buried in early February can now be found around 80-120cm below the surface. This crust, which may coexist with small facets or decomposing surface hoar, was recently producing sudden planar results in tests. Although no recent avalanches were reported to have failed at this interface, I'd remain suspicious of this layer in steep, unsupported terrain at treeline and in the alpine.The mid pack is generally well settled and strong.