Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Monday overnight brings 5-10 cm of new snow. This is accompanied by strong South winds, and freezing levels near valley bottom. Tuesday: Snow amounts 15-25 cm. The Coquihalla could see 30-50 cm by Tuesday night. The Duffy will receive less. Ridgetop winds strong from the SW. Treeline temperatures near -5. Freezing levels near 500 m. Wednesday: Due to the convective weather pattern, scattered light-moderate snow accumulations are expected. Ridgetop winds moderate from the SW. Treeline temperatures near -8. Freezing levels valley bottom. Thursday: Cloudy in the morning, broken skies in the afternoon. Light afternoon flurries. Freezing levels valley bottom in the morning, rising to 800 m in the afternoon.

No new observations reported on Monday. On Sunday, a size 3 loose avalanche failed naturally with solar warming on a south-east aspect in the Coquihalla area. A size 3 slab also failed on a north aspect, 1.5m deep and 100m wide. A few isolated avalanches were observed on Saturday in steep, rocky terrain. On Thursday, a natural loose moist avalanche cycle was observed in the Coquihalla region between 1400-1700m, with avalanches of size 2-3.5. A few slabs also released, with crowns of 50-60 cm. Explosives testing in the Duffey Lake area produced slab avalanches up to size 2.5 and skiers triggered very touchy storm slabs to size 1.5. Avalanche activity may increase again with solar warming on Monday, or with snow and wind on Tuesday.

Forecast snow and strong SW winds will likely create new storm and wind slab problems. Last week's storm snow created slabs at all elevations, which appear to have gained strength. Large cornices loom and threaten slopes below. Crusts down 50-60 cm can be found on solar aspects in the Duffey Lake, Chilcotin, and Coquihalla areas. These exhibit moderate to hard, sudden results in snowpack tests.Deeper persistent weak layers are variable in distribution across the region. A crust/surface hoar/facet layer buried in early February, now down about 1.5m, is still is a key concern. It is especially prevalent on south-facing slopes above treeline, and all slopes below treeline. Although the likelihood of triggering this layer has decreased, the potential for surprisingly large avalanches remains.