Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 26th, 2012 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

The big storm did not arrive on Monday as forecasted, but current snow is burying a variety of layers including crusts and surface hoar. These will be layers to watch over the next several days. Wind loading is expected to increase on Tuesday.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Moderate snowfall will continue through Monday night with a break expected on Tuesday morning. Light precipitation is expected for the remainder of the week. Winds will increase on Tuesday up to strong out of the SW.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed, but visibility was very limited.

Snowpack Summary

The expected 25 to 30cm of forecasted snow failed to materialize with only 1 to 2cm accumulating by mid afternoon. A sun crust is beginning to be buried on all solar aspects all the way to ridgetop. In addition, a melt freeze crust up to 2200m on north aspects and isolated pockets of surface hoar at all elevations are currently being buried. These will be layers to watch in the near future.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Thin storm slabs are forming on lee features and will continue to develop on Tuesday with increased winds. These slabs sit on a variety of buried layers including crusts and surface hoar. These will be layers to watch over the next few days.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

The Feb surface hoar is buried 120-150cm at treeline. Field tests are showing that this layer is strengthening and becoming harder to trigger, but shallow snowpack areas are still a concern. Cornices or smaller avalanches could trigger this layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 6

Valid until: Mar 27th, 2012 9:00AM