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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 6th, 2013–Feb 7th, 2013
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Be watchful under avalanche paths, due to the likelihood of avalanches extending to the bottom of their paths.  Strong winds have created large cornices that may be the perfect trigger for avalanches.  Avalanche control will be ongoing today.

Weather Forecast

Snow flurries will taper off later today.  Rising freezing levels and warm temperatures (possibly as high as +2) can be expected mid-day.  There is a chance of convective snow squalls in isolated locations.  Another ridge is building for the end of the week, bringing dryer conditions for the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Glacier Park has received 30 cm of snow at treeline over the past two days.  This overlies a sun crust (formed on Feb. 3rd) on solar aspects, and firm old snow elsewhere.  Moderate to strong winds have redistributed this storm snow into soft and hard slabs in the alpine and treeline.  Below this, the Feb. 23rd surface hoar is less reactive.

Avalanche Summary

A large natural avalanche (size 2.5) was observed by skiers in the Connaught drainage yesterday.  It started low on Mt. Cheops (Cheops N. 4) and ran to 1/3 fan.  Avalanches to size 2.5 were also observed in the highway corridor from Mt. MacDonald. 

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind loading of storm snow over the past 48 hours has created 20-40 cm thick slabs at and above treeline.  These are thicker on lee aspects, but are also a problem on solar (windward) aspects where they overly a crust.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3