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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 9th, 2016–Mar 10th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

It's spring out there! Avoid steep solar aspects especially in the alpine.  Sudden intense warming from the sun will increase avalanche hazard. 

Weather Forecast

Today will be calm before the storm.  Expect cooler temperatures with afternoon freezing level to 1400m. Light ridge crest winds are forecast today, with an alpine high of -4 and and potential for isolated convective flurries.  Starting this evening a low pressure system & front moving inland will bring up to 40cm of snow by Friday

Snowpack Summary

Windslabs exist in the alpine from S winds last week but are gaining strength. The surface snow became moist yesterday to 1700m(higher on S asps) but was still supportive to a riders weight. The Feb 27 layer is now down 60cm which is crusts on solar aspects and surface hoar on shaded aspects @ TL. Feb 27 was active during Sunday's avalanche shoot

Avalanche Summary

Highway avalanche control on Sunday produced avalanches up to sz 3.5 but most were in the size 2-2.5 range. One notable from the shoot was a 300+ m propagation on the East face of Mt Cheops. Monday a survey of the Connaught valley showed numerous sz 2's had run into the creek from Cheops Pk.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Previous southerly winds created windslab on lee slopes and crossloaded features. While these slabs are gaining strength they still remain a concern for human triggering. Cornices are large right now and could easily fail from sun or riders weight
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The Feb 27th interface is now down 60cm & is producing sporadic sudden planar results on field tests. It is most active as a crust on South asps and in sheltered areas at treeline. Daytime heating and solar input will increase it's sensitivity
Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3