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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 2nd, 2015–Jan 3rd, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/links/goto_e.asp?destination=http://www.facebook.com/ParksMountainSafety/posts/768278099888848%E2%80%8EThe December 17 surface hoar layer remains the number one problem and requires careful decision making. New snow may conceal buried wind slabs in exposed areas.

Weather Forecast

Expect ongoing flurries today with accumulation up to 5cm. Ridge top winds will be southwest in the moderate range. Precipitation will ease off overnight as winds intensify. Saturday brings more light precipitation with strong winds.  Watch for wind slab formation. The next major system will arrive late Sunday bring moderate amounts of snow.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of new snow now covers recently formed wind slabs in exposed areas and facets elsewhere. The Dec 17th surface hoar layer is down 60-80cm sitting on top of a thick rain crust facet combo below 2100m and sitting on a settled mid-pack above. This layer is widespread and continues to be reactive.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has decreased in recent days but this is likely to change. New overnight snow and wind will form touchy storm slabs on exposed features. There is now increased risk of avalanches stepping down 60-70cm to the December 17 surface hoar layer, which is still reactive to skier loads.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The December 17th surface hoar layer is still reactive. Avalanches continue to be triggered even in locations previously skied. Some areas offer few clues of the instability but the potential for large avalanches continues.
Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

10-15cm of new snow with moderate winds last night. This has likely formed a thin storm slab in exposed ares, concealing existing wind slabs.  Riders may be surprised by this layer, as these avalanches have the potential to trigger deeper layers.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2