Avalanche forecast

Northwest Inland

Feb 13 – 14, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

If you head out this weekend please tell us what you find. Submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–6
    There is still quite a bit of uncertainty about the reactivity of deeper problem layers in the snowpack. I would manage this by assuming that every slope above treeline still has the potential to produce a very large and destructive avalanche.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    2–4
    Up to 35cm of new snow may above a thin layer of surface hoar. The chance of triggering an avalanche will be greater on slopes where the upper snow pack is moist or wet.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Loose wet activity remains possible in steep open terrain and gullies bellow 1500m.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

A ridge will build over the weekend signaling an end to the wetness. Before it does up to 5mm of rain may fall in the west of the region overnight on Friday. Saturday will see mainly dry conditions with moderate southwest winds and a freezing level of 1500m. Isolated showers with sunny periods are expected on Sunday with a freezing level of 1000m; winds will be light from the west. The region should be dry by Monday, with light northwesterly winds and a freezing level of 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

We haven't received any new avalanche reports recently but that may just be because not many people are getting out. Given the uncertainty I would keep keep the persistent week layers in mind over the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

At treeline and above between 10 and 25cm of new snow may sit on a thin layer of surface hoar. At lower elevations, rain has saturated the upper snowpack and a freezing rain crust may be found up to around 1100m. A number of weak layers are lingering in the mid-pack although we haven't received much new information in the last week and I'm uncertain as to which of these are still players, and which are now dormant. The early-February surface hoar layer is not found everywhere, but where it does exist it is buried between 40 and 80 cm down. The late January crust is probably down 85 to 160cm in the South of the region but is likely to be shallower in the North. The mid-January rain crust and surface hoar is probably down between 100 and 200cm. Finally, the crust/facet combination from November can be found near the ground.

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