A scary MODERATE danger exists for large destructive avalanches several feet deep. Thinner snowpack areas and thin, rocky, unsupported slopes are most suspect. Cracking and collapsing are unlikely to be present. The danger will also reach at least MODERATE and perhaps CONSIDERABLE this weekend for wet avalanche activity on the steep sun-kissed slopes.
Hot Tip! Wind and sun-sheltered low angle terrain is 4 stars. Low Risk High Reward.
Shallow and pockety wind drifts will be found in the higher elevations today and in the open bowls and exposed terrain. Video from yesterday on Superior in Little Cottonwood. The same may be expected in the high peaks above Provo.
We are trending toward a deep, conditionally stable snowpack, but the glue needs to set. It's not there yet, but it's getting there.
The past week's storms that brought 4 - 6” of snow-water-equivalent and wind have stressed many of the older dormant weak layers. In the recent days, avalanche control teams have triggered some very large avalanches at or near the ground in the Central Wasatch. These monsters have all been in mid to upper elevation north to east facing terrain. None of these have been skier or snowmobile triggered, but a person finding a thin spot or triggering a more superficial avalanche may be enough to trip the trigger.
Trending toward low-probability and high-consequence. Certainly any entanglement with one of these deep slab avalanches would be fatal, however. These avalanches may be found as well on mid and upper elevation southerly facing slopes. Carey Pierce noted some recent activity on the south side of Loafer Mtn from the early week avalanche cycle. 9600'/southerly facing.
Previous crusting of the snow surface will help slow or stem a major wet avalanche cycle, but I expect both natural and human triggered wet avalanches on the steep sunlit slopes today. Watch for the tell-tale signs of thaw-instability such as rollerballs and pinwheels or if the snow becomes wet and unsupportable. If you've overstayed your welcome, move to a cooler aspect or seek low angle terrain. More info on wet avalanches can be found in the Avalanche Encyclopedia here.
Yesterday a snowmobiler was buried by an avalanche in the La Sal Mountains of southeastern Utah. Members of his party were unable to locate him. Search and rescue personnel will continue the search this morning. We will provide more information as it becomes available.
Avalanche control teams continue to trigger large dangerous avalanches to (near) the ground. Park City snow safety triggered a large avalanche in Homelight with just a single hand charge surface shot yesterday, prodding out a 3-5' deep and 500' wide deep slab on this east facing run at 9000'. Photo courtesy of PCMR snow safety. In the backcountry, we only heard about a couple shallow wind drifts triggered in the high alpine terrain of Superior (video below).
Skies are partly cloudy. West-northwest winds are 10-15mph with gusts to 25. The highest anemometers spin 30mph with gusts to 45. Temps are in the upper-teens to low 20s.
Total snow depths are 75-90" in the Provo mountains with excellent coverage at the low elevations. It's been a good run. Various sun, rime, and wind crusts abound but the best conditions are found in the mid-elevation sun and wind sheltered terrain. For today, expect fair weather, light to moderate northwesterly winds, and ridgetop temps rising to the mid-20s. The weather looks uninteresting until the turn of the month.
Risk management in the backcountry is all about time and place. Take steep sunny aspects, for example. Too early and it might be slide-for-life conditions. Too late and it might be terrifying wet avalanche conditions. Timing is everything. If your sense of timing is off, avoid the steep sunny aspects altogether. Same goes for wind drifts. Tomorrow, the drifts should be stable. For today, avoid the alpine terrain where they exist.
There's an old adage, Of terrain, weather, and snowpack, we can only choose terrain. It's actually not true. It's through our terrain choices that we choose our weather and and snowpack. It's up to us to choose when and where we go.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
