Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Fresh wind slabs will build on lee slopes as snow levels drop tonight and winds continue to move snow through Saturday. Avoid steep wind loaded slopes over 35 degrees by sticking to lower angled or wind-scoured terrain. Give cornices a wide berth as you travel along ridgelines and avoid traveling on slopes directly below them.
Discussion
A big warm-up on Friday brought plenty of wind (gusts into the 60s!) with rain falling uphill by the afternoon (according to Park Rangers) to Hurricane Ridge. Snow that was still available for transport in the morning quickly became moist with the warm-up. Observations were limited due to winds on the Ridge Friday. The roller coaster of snow levels in this active pattern will continue through the weekend, with snow levels plummeting overnight and a fresh round of snow and wind expected. Below 4500' (below treeline) low snow depths are still limiting the avalanche potential. By the end of next week and with additional cool storms, we may be able to change that story at lower elevations. Expect challenging travel conditions on steeper terrain that has been wind scoured down to the most recent rain crust. Â
Forecast Schedule
For the 2019-20 winter season, avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week, No Rating will be issued but forecasts will include expected conditions and relevant travel advice. If you are out in the Olympics, share your backcountry observations with us and the greater community.
Snowpack Discussion
Happy New Year!Â
The pacific northwest rung in the new year with a winter storm cycle that brought changing conditions to our region. This storm exhibited three characteristics: warm, wet, and windy. Let’s take a look at the end of 2019, the beginning of 2020, and where we can go from here.Â
Wrapping up 2019
The last few days of December were generally quiet and cold. The snowpack seemed to enjoy this break in the weather. Lingering unstable snow from the pre-Christmas storms gained strength, persistent weak layers appeared to stabilize, and avalanche hazard decreased in all forecast zones. All in all 2019 ended quiet and uneventful… until the New Year’s Eve weather party showed up … Â
Quiet weather led to lower avalanche danger during the last week of 2019. Hogsback, White Pass, WA. Photo: Andy Harrington
Blowing into 2020
A warm, wet, and windy weather system blew into the northwest for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. This brought rapidly changing conditions and increasing avalanche hazard to all areas.Â
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Warm: Unfortunately this system brought with it warm air. Freezing levels measured near the coast reached 9000’ on the afternoon of the 31st. Many weather stations recorded above freezing temperatures during the onset of precipitation.Â
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Wet: While this system wasn’t as wet as the atmospheric river prior to Christmas, it still produced impressive water numbers in many areas. The bulk of the precipitation seemed to be focused on the Passes and Volcanoes, and water spilled over the crest to places like Washington Pass and Leavenworth. Sadly, when combined with the warm temperatures, this translated to rain well into the near treeline band (or higher) for most areas. The main exception appeared to be in the northeastern cascades, where locations like Washington Pass remained all snow.Â
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HurRidge
MtBaker
WaPass
Stevens
Leavenworth
SnoqPass
MtRainier
MtHood
Precipitation (in)
1.84
3.39
1.42
4.56
1.06
6.19
5.39
5.41
Snow (in)
-
15
-
12
0
3
10
8
Table 1: Precipitation and storm totals from selected weather stations during the New Year’s Eve Storm. “-†24hr storm snow not measured.Â
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Windy: While the warm and wet were impressive, it’s the winds that may set this storm apart. Most weather stations recorded very strong and extreme winds during the storm. Alpental exceeded 100mph just after midnight to ring in the new year. Any dry snow at high elevations was redistributed by the wind and snow surfaces were transformed.Â
Table 2: Wind speeds from New Year’s Eve from selected wind sites. Note the sustained period of winds between 40-60mph.
Eventually, temperatures cooled, the rain turned back to snow, and winds calmed. Many locations picked up additional snow as the storm wound down, but 2020 was already off and rolling with its first major storm.
New Year’s Resolutions
The active weather pattern that started the new year appears to continue. The snowpack and avalanche conditions will continue to change. So, what can your New Year Avalanche Resolutions be?Â
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Read the forecast. This is a great way to monitor conditions even if you aren’t heading into the mountains.Â
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Get out in the snow! Enjoy the wonderful mountains in your backyard.Â
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Submit an observation. Tell the avalanche center what you saw while out in the snow by submitting an observation and sending in a photo.Â
Thanks for all of your support in 2019 and here’s to 2020!
-Dallas
Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Dangerous avalanche conditions are likely to develop on steep wind loaded slopes near and above treeline as 6-12" of new snow and continued strong winds in the Hurricane Ridge area build a fresh round of wind slabs through Saturday. Watch for cracking in the snow as a clear sign of instability and avoid open slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have firmer wind drifted snow. Give fresh cornices some space when traveling along ridgelines and avoid traveling directly below cornices.
With a cooling trend, storm slabs are not expected to develop at lower elevations in more wind-protected areas. If you find more than 6" of new snow below treeline, approach smooth and steep unsupported slopes with caution. Test how the new snow bonds to the old snow surface on small inconsequential test slopes.
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1