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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2015–Jan 17th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

New snow will bond poorly to widespread surface hoar layer. Expect sluffing in steep terrain. December 17 persistent slab is still the number 1 concern.

Weather Forecast

Isolated flurries continue today with up to 4cm of accumulation with light SW winds gusting to moderate. Alpine temperatures are expected to remain around -5.  A slight ridge builds in on Saturday giving a break in precipitation before the arrival of a moisture-laden warm front on Sunday morning with up to 20cm of accumulation throughout the day.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of new snow sits on top of the widespread January 15 surface hoar layer.  On steep solar aspects, this layer is combined with a 2-3cm crust. A cohesive slab sits on top of the Dec 17 surface hoar layer (down 70-110cm). The Dec 17 surface hoar sits on a crust complex that still shows weakness in stability tests. Well settled lower pack.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed yesterday.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The December 17th surface hoar layer is still a real concern. This layer is widespread at treeline and more spotty at alpine elevations. The surface hoar sits on a thick crust complex which provides a firm failure plane for avalanches.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Dry

10-15cm of new snow sits on top of the January 15 surface hoar layer.  Expect loose avalanches and sluffing in steep terrain.  Although winds have remained light, they are expected to increase. Watch for developing slabs on lee features later today.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2