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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2013–Dec 16th, 2013
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Weather Forecast

Light snow is forecast today, with around 5 cm of accumulation.  Freezing levels will rise to around 1300m.  Ridge top winds continue to be SW 40 gusting to 70.  Only trace amounts of snow are forecast for tomorrow, with a return to light snow on Tuesday.  Temperatures will slowly fall over the forecast period.

Snowpack Summary

40-50cm of storm snow sits over the December 8 surface hoar layer at lower elevations and over variable wind slabs up high. The storm snow is rapidly settling into a slab with warm temperatures and moderate to strong winds. The November 28 surface hoar is down around 60-80cm.

Avalanche Summary

We observed a small natural avalanche cycle along the highway corridor yesterday. The majority of the avalanches were size 1.5 to 2.5 from all aspects depositing snow into runnouts. Two size 3.0 avalanches were observed both east and west of Rogers Pass.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Over 50cm of storm snow has created soft slabs.  Use caution in terrain over 30 degrees.  Small avalanches could trigger deeper instabilities.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Watch for soft slabs on lee features at and above tree-line.  Large amounts of snow are being transported by moderate to strong SW winds.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2